Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Michael Floyd Coming Back Early?

According to reports from ESPN and Irish Illustrated, Michael Floyd may be back in time for the November 14 clash with the University of Pittsburgh. Floyd, who broke his collarbone against Michigan State earlier this season, was originally reported to be out for the rest of the regular season. Today, Charlie Weis indicated that Floyd was ahead of schedule and will begin practicing this week. Further tests will be done closer to the week of the game vs. Pitt to determine whether or not Floyd will be able to return at that time.

This is great news for Notre Dame. The offense has still been able to put up a lot of yards and points without Floyd, but they are a much more dynamic offense with him in the lineup. In 2 and a half games this year, Floyd caught 13 passes for 358 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Looking ahead on Notre Dame's remaining schedule, Notre Dame has a tough game against USC this week. If Notre Dame can find a way to win this game, they should only have one loss heading into the game versus Pittsburgh. Floyd's return will be just in time because the last three weeks of the season feature tough matchups at Pittsburgh, home versus Connecticut, and at Stanford. Here's a look at what's left on Notre Dame's schedule prior to Floyd returning for the Pitt game.

USC: This is a really tough matchup for Notre Dame given their weakness in stopping the run and USC's strength in running the ball behind a great o-line. Expect a tight game down to the end. If the Irish can pull this one out, look for the Irish to vault upwards in the polls and make a push for a BCS bowl birth.

BOSTON COLLEGE: This is the type of game that could be an emotional let down for the Irish after the USC game. However, Notre Dame has lost badly to Boston College the last two years, so there will not be a let down here. Irish get some payback in a tough dog fight.

WASHINGTON STATE: This is one of the worst teams in college football. Irish roll!

NAVY: Almost pulled a big time upset against Ohio State the first week of the season. Because of this fact, Notre Dame will not take them lightly. Navy will score some points but Notre Dame should win going away.

Are the Irish really back?

The time has come for the 4-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team to show the world how good they really are or aren't. The number 6 ranked USC Trojans will come marching into Southbend this weekend for what the Fighting Irish faithful hope will be a classic matchup. Charlie Weis better hope so too.

A lot is on the line for the Notre Dame football program. Despite showing significant improvement this season and being ranked number 25 in the country, the national perception of this program is not what it has been historically. Their are a lot of doubters out there who do not believe Notre Dame has elite level talent or that their coach can get it done in the big game. A win against USC would dramatically alter this perception. Also consider the fact that this is the biggest recruiting weekend Notre Dame has had in recent memory with over 20 top high school seniors planning on attending. A win or competitive game against USC would show Notre Dame is a team to be taken seriously as a BCS competitor and an inviting destination for top recruits, but another blowout loss to USC would only reinforce the national perception of Notre Dame as a second tier team and deter recruits from committing.

Can the Irish win this game? The answer is yes. Notre Dame's offense is one of the best in the country featuring the most efficient passer in the nation and future first round NFL draft pick Jimmy Clausen, the best tight end in the country in Kyle Rudolph, and one of the best all around play makers in college football Golden Tate. Add to that an above average offensive line and a trio of solid running backs and the Irish will move the football against USC. The question will be can the Irish offense finish in the red zone? A repeat performance of the Washington game when the Irish missed scoring touchdowns on their first 5 opportunities in the red zone and settled for field goals will kill their chances. However, in the 4th quarter and overtime of the Washington game, Notre Dame found it's redzone specialist in 235 lb running back Robert Hughes. Hughes showed a renewed confidence and determination with powerful runs inside the ten yard line which resulted in scores. Notre Dame clearly has the better quarterback, the better offense, and is playing at home. Consider the fact that Notre Dame scored 37 points against Washington while USC only scored 13 points against the same defense. Enough said.

The Notre Dame defense is another story. Notre Dame's front seven is one of the most inexperienced groups in the country and struggles to stop the run. Enter USC's offensive line and stable of elite running backs. All 5 of USC's starting offensive linemen project to the NFL and their recruiting at the running back position is unmatched by any other program in the country. If Notre Dame can't slow down the USC running attack, it'll be a long day for the Irish defense and you'll see Jimmy Clausen in the shotgun a lot trying to keep pace.

My prediction for the game is a high scoring track meet. The team who has the ball last will most likely win. Given Jimmy Clausen's ability to drive the Notre Dame team down the field in the last minutes of the game for four consecutive games going back to the Michigan game, lets hope the ball is in his hands at the critical moment.

Final score: Notre Dame 30, USC 28.

Steelers Coaching Subpar

After last season's Superbowl victory, I never thought I would take issue with the Steelers' coaching staff, but after watching the last two regular season games against San Diego and Detroit respectively I have issues. During the Superbowl run, Coach Tomlin and his staff pushed all of the right buttons. Here are a few of the "wrong" buttons that they've been pushing the last couple of weeks.

SAN DIEGO: The momentum changer in the 4th quarter against the San Diego Chargers was undoubtedly when Stefan Logan was stripped of the football on a punt return. One can make a strong argument that forward progress should have been called and the Steelers should have retained possession of the football. Unfortunately, referees are human and make mistakes more often than we would like, but good teams have to overcome adversity. To the Steelers credit, they took their next posession and drove straight down the field for another touchdown providing a momentary sense of calm for the fans who were still in attendance at Heinz Field.

The sense of relief did not last long as the Chargers came right back and scored again with only 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The following onsides kick and recovery by the Chargers indicates to me that coaches can be victims of a Superbowl hangover as well. Given the fact that the Chargers needed two touchdowns to tie the game, only had 5 minutes left to accomplish this feat, and the fact that the Steelers offense could not be stopped from running the football and killing the precious 5 minutes that was left in the game; everybody and their brother including yours truly sitting in the stands and the NBC broadcast team of Chris Collinsworth and Al Michaels suspected an onside kick.

How did Coach Tomlin see things? Well, he put his regular kickoff return unit on the field instead of the hands team. His explanation after the game? "We didn't see any indication from the Chargers that an onsides kick was coming." Really???? That's it? Did you need Coach Norv Turner to send you a notarized letter stating his intentions to figure this one out when every other person in the free world knew the onsides kick was coming? This is a lame excuse by a coach I have come to respect for having his team prepared to do battle every week. Hopefully, it's the only wake up call he'll need this season.

DETROIT: The progress that the Steelers offense has made so far this season has been impressive. The offensive line is greatly improved in run and pass blocking while the emergence of Mike Wallace as a third receiver and Rashard Mendenhall showing why the Steelers drafted him in the first round is turning this offense into an explosive one at the least. Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year leading the NFL in completion percentage (73%) and averaging almost 300 yards passing per game. The offense has scored on 8 consecutive possessions in the red zone which is unheard of in the NFL even when you consider the fact that Detroit and San Diego aren't exactly a spitting image of the Steel Curtain defenses we are accustomed to in Pittsburgh.

That being said, Bruce Arians needs his head checked for his play calling during the 4th quarter of the game against Detroit with only 10 minutes left in the game and the ball at midfield. By his own admission, Bruce Arians knows he got "greedy" looking for the deep ball during the 4th quarter instead of running the ball and killing clock. His poor decision making allowed time for the Lions to make a comeback attempt which thankfully fell short and also allowed for some unecessary hits on his all-pro QB. Consider the following facts:
  • The Steelers defense was on the field for 27 plays during the third quarter because the Steelers scored so quickly on their only posession of the third quarter thanks to a long TD pass to Mike Wallace. The result is the defense was very tired after only allowing 6 points through the first three quarters.
  • Ben Roethlisberger had only been sacked once through the first three quarters which is amazing when you consider Ben's tendency to hold onto the ball too long and the offensive lines historical struggles in pass protection. By trying to throw the deep ball, the Steelers franchise player took uneccessary hits and gave the Lions the spark they needed to get back into the game getting sacked twice on consecutive plays. What if Ben had been hurt like he was last year separating his throwing shoulder?
  • Rashard Mendhall had 12 carries for 71 yards at that point in the game and the Lions did not appear to have an answer for him. Mendenhall finished the game with only 15 carries for 77 yards. That is unforgiveable when you have a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter and have the ball at mid field with only 10 minutes left in the game. Throw the ball to get a lead, but run the ball to finish the game.

If Arians had to do it over again, I'm sure he would have handed the ball off to Mendenhall at least 10 more times in an effort to kill the clock, give the defense a rest, and get the team into field goal range to put the game out of reach. But are we sure about that? Go back to a playoff game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns a little over a half decade ago at Heinz Field. The Steelers were led by Tommy "Gun" Maddox and made a scintilating comeback to win the game after trailing by more than three scores in the second half. Steelers fans remember the heroics of Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala scoring the go ahead TD with less than 2 minutes remaining in the game, but how quickly we forget the name of the Browns offensive coordinator that day who chose to throw the football most of the second half instead of eating clock by running the ball and effectively killing the Steelers superbowl hopes. You guessed it! The offensive coordinator for the Browns that day was none other than our very own Bruce Arians. The Steelers offense can be very explosive, but when you're running back is averaging almost 6 yards per carry hand the ball off and secure the win before padding your stats.

LEBEAU OVERCOMPENSATING: It's tough to find much fault with Dick LeBeau's coaching. The man is a hall of famer and the inventor of the zone blitz defense. Because of LeBeau, the Steelers defense is annually a top 5 defense statistically in the NFL, but even LeBeau can make mistakes.

The loss of Troy Polamalu is huge for any team, but should the Steelers be struggling this much to close out games in the 4th quarter without him? Last time I checked we still have reigning defensive mvp James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, Aaron Smith, Brett Kiesel, James Farrior, and Lawrence Timmons but somehow we are still struggling to stop oppossing offenses when it counts.

The question then becomes what is the difference between last year's top ranked defense and this years version of the black and gold? The answer is LeBeau is overcompensating for the loss of Troy Polamalu by blitzing a higher percentage of the time. Wait a minute? Isn't this Blitzburg? The Steelers always blitz! As college football analyst Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friends!" Last season the Steelers typically showed blitz during the pre-snap reads but then would only send 3-4 pass rushers while dropping 7-8 into coverage the majority of the time. The Steelers ability to get pressure on the quarterback with only 4 pass rushers allowed the Steelers secondary to play tighter coverage and shut down oppossing offenses.

If you've watched the Steelers defense closely since Troy's injury, Lebeau has ramped up the number of blitzes and the Steelers are getting gashed for big plays late in games. Teams are throwing screens and hot reads behind the Steelers blitz leaving our secondary in precarious one-on-one matchups.

Losing a player of Troy's caliber makes Lebeau's decision making understandable. Pass defense is two parts: coverage and pressure. Given the loss of the Steelers best play maker in the secondary it makes sense to increase the effort to pressure oppossing quarterbacks instead of playing coverage. However, it has not worked well. Lebeau needs to allow Woodley and Harrison to win one-on-one matchups with offensive linemen to sure up the coverage in the secondary. The Steelers are lucky that Daunte Culpepper plays QB for the Detroit Lions. Otherwise we might be 2-3 instead of 3-2 at this point of the season.